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India past COVID peak

Topics Covered: Issues related to health.

India past COVID peak:


A modelling study- the “COVID-19 India National Supermodel”- was conducted by a seven-member expert panel on the future course of the pandemic, commissioned by the Department of Science and Technology.

The commission has submitted its report.

Key findings:

  • India passed its COVID peak in September and, if current trends continue, there will be “minimal cases” by February.
  • India’s COVID burden is expected to be capped at 106 lakh symptomatic infections by early next year, with less than 50,000 active cases from December.
  • This, however, is premised on no spikes being triggered by festivals or mutations in the virus aiding its spread in winter.
  • A complete shutdown should be considered only at sub-district levels if there is a spike that threatens local healthcare capacity.
  • Nearly 30% of the country had been exposed to the virus, so far.
  • Had there been no lockdown India would have seen symptomatic active infections peak from 40-147 lakh by June and a lockdown beginning on April 1 or May would have seen a peak of 30-40 lakh by July.


Sources: the Hindu.