Lok Sabha TV Insights – Iran Nuclear Deal
14/7/2015
After a couple of years of exceptional diplomacy, Iran has finally penned deal with G5+1. Iran agreed to bring down its centrifuges by 2/3rd, to limit its enrichment at 3.67% and to limit stockpiles to 300 Kgs from current 10000 Kgs. Credit for this should undoubtedly go to Iranian moderate leader Hasan Rouhani and US president Obama. These leaders took pragmatically different course from their predecessors who were bound towards an avoidable conflict.
Iran in pre- Rouhani era was committed to develop nuclear bomb. There was deep suspicion in Iranian regime that U.S. and allies are conspiring for a regime change in Iran. These suspicions were not completely unfounded. It was reported every now and then that U.S. is financing NGOs in Iran for its interest. It is also alleged that US is supporting Pakistan based Jundullah group. This, if true won’t be a big surprise if we go by history of U.S.
In 1953, government of democratically elected Iranian P.M. (Mohammad Mosaddiq) was overthrown by covert operation facilitated by American intelligence. In his place Shah Muhammad Reza (shah) was installed. This was probably because former had nationalized some British asset and U.S. was alarmed at possibility of Mosaddiq regime going in USSR camp. Shah was an ardent ally of US and US poured significant financial aid in Iran. This led to infiltration US liberal cultural influence in Iran, which disturbed conservatives to the core. Further, Shah turned out to be an autocratic and indulgent ruler which alienated public. This led to Islamic revolution in 1979, in which Shah Regime was finally overthrown. This was replaced by a theocratic democracy, which has been since then at loggerheads with entire west, Israel and Sunni states.
Soon in 1980, Iraq attacked Iran as it feared its own large Shia minority will be corrupted by new Shia state. This destructive War went on till 1988. West chose not to interfere. Some day in 1988, US navy shot down (later claiming by mistake) an Iranian plane killing more than 200 citizens. In 1995 trade sanctions were imposed. There were other similar incidents and repetitive sanctions which eventually made Iranians committed for acquisition of Nuclear weapons. Today Iran was very close to acquire nuclear weapons and is already reported to possess a Long range ICBM.
It was very clear to Iran that west too was committed to not let Iran go nuclear. Any such attempt would have violated Non Proliferation Treaty of which Iran is member and this reason was enough for an attack if backed by UN. Consequently, Iran chose to halt its nuclear progress at least for time being. This deal will be in force for 15 years.
Iran in pre – 1979 era was a major regional power. It’s has 3rd largest oil reserves and its $ 200 billion worth of currency is lying blocked with various western banks owing to sanctions. Iranian economy will give a thrust to world economy. This also leads to an unprecedented geo –political shift in Middle East. Bashar Al Assad regime of Syria will get replenished support from new Iran. Shia terrorist group Hezbollah too might acquire new muscle. It should be noted that Iran, Syria and Libya were trusted allies among themselves. Latter two have been in trouble due to Arab Spring. So Iran’s new inclinations and priorities are yet to be known.
It is yet to be seen how US congress reacts to this deal. Most likely, deal with get through the Congress. Strongest opposition comes from the Republicans, among who is the influential arms lobby. This lobby will most likely soften its stand against Iran in anticipation of business. Even if they doesn’t, President has right to exercise veto over this decision. This will be politically risky, but given last major initiative of Obama he may not hesitate to use it.
Also read this old article on similar issue – Here
Lok Sabha TV Insights Quiz
This Quiz is Based on Lok Sabha TV Insights Program Summary that we Post on this Website.
